As Kenya approaches the 2027 General Election, political alliances are already shaping up across the country. For ODM, the future of the party is not just about surviving after the loss of Raila Odinga, but about how it positions itself strategically in the next political cycle. Minority leader Junet Mohammed, one of the party’s senior leaders, has shared a clear picture of ODM’s direction: a broad coalition, careful negotiations, and a commitment to maintaining the party’s independence.
Junet’s statements suggest that ODM is not panicking or collapsing, but is actively preparing for a future where political success depends on partnerships and negotiations. He emphasizes that ODM is not planning to be absorbed by any other party, but rather to form strategic alliances that will keep the party strong and relevant.
The Coalition Strategy: Negotiations with UDA and Beyond
Junet Mohammed has confirmed that ODM has already started negotiations for the 2027 elections. He explains that the party is open to forming alliances, but insists that this will be a partnership, not a takeover.
“ODM will be in a broad-based government until 2027, & that’s why, as a party, we have already started negotiations for 2027, beginning with UDA. If we don’t reach an agreement, we will engage with other parties.”
This statement reveals a significant shift in ODM’s approach. The party is no longer focused solely on internal unity or legacy, but on practical political strategy. Junet suggests that ODM is prepared to negotiate early, which is a clear sign of a party that wants to control its own destiny rather than react to events as they happen.
The emphasis on a “broad-based government” indicates that ODM is aware of the changing political landscape in Kenya.
The next election is expected to be highly competitive, and parties that form early alliances will have an advantage. Junet’s message is clear, ODM will be proactive, not reactive.
Junet also addressed the persistent rumors that ODM is being absorbed by UDA. He strongly denied these claims, stating that ODM remains an independent party with a long history.
“It’s fake news that ODM is giving itself to UDA. ODM has been a strong party for 20 years. What will happen is coalition building between UDA and ODM, not one party swallowing the other.”
This is a crucial point. Many analysts have speculated that ODM’s declining influence after Raila’s death could push it into a subordinate role within a larger coalition. Junet’s statement challenges that narrative and insists that ODM will remain a strong and independent political force.
Junet also makes it clear that ODM is not limited to UDA. If negotiations fail, the party will explore other options.
“If negotiations go well, we will support President Ruto in 2027, but if they don’t, we will engage with other parties.”
This shows that ODM is prepared for different scenarios and is not dependent on a single alliance. It also suggests that the party is willing to negotiate from a position of strength rather than desperation.
What This Means for Kenyan Politics
Junet’s statements also reveal a broader political strategy that goes beyond party alliances. He believes that ODM remains stable and united, and that this stability will allow the party to negotiate from a position of strength.
“ODM is stable. There are no factions just individuals with differing views and opinions that haven’t crystallized into groups.”
This is an important claim because it challenges the narrative that ODM is divided and collapsing after Raila’s death. According to Junet, the party is still cohesive, and the disagreements within it have not turned into factional divisions.
The stability of ODM is crucial for its future. A party that is united internally is better positioned to negotiate and build alliances. Junet’s confidence suggests that ODM is preparing for the long game.
The coalition strategy also signals a new phase in Kenyan politics. The era of single-party dominance is over, and the next election will likely be decided by coalition dynamics. ODM’s strategy is to ensure that it remains a key player in this new political reality.
Junet’s insistence on coalition building rather than absorption is also a message to ODM supporters. It reassures them that the party’s identity will remain intact, even as it seeks alliances to win power. This is crucial for maintaining the loyalty of the party’s base.
Junet Mohammed’s comments about the 2027 election reveal a party that is calm, strategic, and determined to remain relevant. ODM is positioning itself as a major player in Kenya’s future, not as a party that is fading away. Whether the coalition negotiations with UDA succeed or not, one thing is clear: ODM is planning for power, and it is doing so on its own terms.