The Fai political establishment may be approaching one of the most consequential moments in its preparations for the 2027 Wajir gubernatorial election.
On last week two men associated with the community’s gubernatorial ambitions, Mohamed Ibrahim Elmi and Ugas Sheikh Mohamed, appeared at the same political gathering, where Ugas received an endorsement from members of the Fai community. But it was Mohamed Fai’s declaration that captured the political imagination: “Ugas and I will not go to the ballot together for the Wajir gubernatorial seat.”
The statement was brief, but its implications could be far-reaching. Was it an indication that one of the two aspirants is preparing to abandon the gubernatorial contest? Is a broader political agreement taking shape behind closed doors, potentially involving the Tarbaj parliamentary seat? Or are the two leaders attempting to establish a new arrangement that could preserve Fai unity while redistributing political ambitions between the county and constituency levels?
At this stage, none of those possibilities can be treated as a confirmed agreement. Yet the appearance of the two aspirants at the same event, combined with the wording of Mohamed Fai’s statement, provides a compelling basis for examining the calculations that may be unfolding behind the scenes.
The timing is particularly significant because the Fai community has already experienced the consequences of a failed attempt to consolidate its gubernatorial ambitions.
In July 2026, elders and delegates endorsed Dr Hassan Mohamed Adan, popularly known as Fuje, as the community’s preferred candidate for governor. The exercise was intended to unite a politically influential section of the Degodia community behind one flag bearer. Instead, it exposed disagreements over the selection process, with Ugas questioning the exercise and withdrawing from it.
Against that background, Saturday’s gathering deserves attention not simply as another community event, but as a possible sign that political conversations are continuing beyond the formal endorsement process. When politicians who have competed for the same position begin appearing together, the question becomes whether their relationship is changing from competition to negotiation.
The most intriguing part of Mohamed Fai’s statement is that he did not say that one of them had withdrawn, nor did he identify which seat either might pursue. He spoke instead of a shared outcome: the two would not face each other on the gubernatorial ballot.
That leaves several possible interpretations open. One could step aside in favour of the other; one could pursue the Tarbaj parliamentary seat; or both could be working towards a wider political understanding whose final terms remain unsettled.
For now, the statement signals a possible convergence of interests rather than a completed political deal.
The Tarbaj Question, the 2022 Numbers and Dr Hassan’s Political Test
The speculation that one of the two may be considering the Tarbaj parliamentary seat is politically plausible, but the available public information does not establish whether that person is Mohamed Fai or Ugas Sheikh. The distinction matters.
A decision by Ugas to leave the gubernatorial race would carry a different political meaning from a decision by Mohamed Fai to do so, particularly because Ugas has a documented history of stepping aside in the interest of a broader political arrangement.
In 2017, Ugas withdrew from the gubernatorial contest in favour of former governor Mohamed Abdi Mohamud after initially receiving elders’ backing. The move helped consolidate support behind Abdi, who went on to win the seat. Ugas subsequently contested the governorship in 2022, receiving 8,086 votes, according to published election results.
His experience makes him a politician familiar with the difficult calculations involved in balancing personal ambition against collective political interests.
That history could strengthen the argument that Ugas might once again consider a strategic withdrawal if a convincing agreement emerged. A parliamentary bid in Tarbaj could offer him a different route to elected office, particularly if he concluded that the gubernatorial contest had become more difficult following the Fai endorsement of Dr Hassan.
However, his previous decision to step aside does not mean he will necessarily repeat it. He could equally seek a negotiated role while retaining his gubernatorial ambitions until a concrete agreement is reached.
Mohamed Fai’s position is less clear from the information publicly available. If he is the one contemplating Tarbaj, the move could represent a strategic decision to pursue parliamentary representation rather than continue competing for the county’s top office.
But without a direct declaration from him, it would be premature to describe such a move as settled. Political rumours can indicate the direction of conversations, but they cannot substitute for confirmation from the individuals involved.
The 2022 gubernatorial results offer an important explanation for why a new arrangement might appeal to political actors within Fai. Ahmed Abdullahi won with 35,533 votes, while Dr Hassan Mohamed Adan finished second with 27,224. Mohamed Elmi received 21,047 votes, and Ugas Sheikh garnered 8,086.
The results demonstrate the scale of the competition and the difficulty of translating community influence into victory when multiple aspirants divide their support.
The lesson is not that clan numbers automatically determine an election. Rather, the results show how internal competition can complicate a candidate’s path to victory, particularly when rival aspirants draw support from overlapping political networks.
The Fai community’s influence in Tarbaj and Wajir East makes unity a valuable political objective, but unity must be built around an arrangement that the principal contenders and their supporters are willing to accept.
This is where the potential relationship between Ugas and Mohamed Fai becomes important. If the two are genuinely exploring a division of political responsibilities, one pursuing the gubernatorial contest and the other the parliamentary seat, the arrangement could reduce competition between their supporters and create a platform for coordinated mobilisation.
Such a deal could also give them greater bargaining power in discussions with other countywide political actors.
But a coalition between two individuals is not automatically a coalition of an entire community. Any arrangement would have to address the concerns of supporters who have already invested politically in different aspirants, as well as elders and delegates who participated in the process that endorsed Dr Hassan.
The central challenge would be persuading people that a new agreement advances the community’s collective interests rather than simply reallocating political opportunities among a small group of leaders.
For Dr Hassan, the developments present both an opportunity and a test. His endorsement gave him an important head start in the race, but an endorsement is most effective when it translates into sustained support beyond the ceremony at which it is announced. If Ugas and Mohamed Fai reach an understanding that strengthens Fai political coordination, Dr Hassan could benefit if the arrangement includes support for his gubernatorial bid.
Conversely, if the two establish a separate political formation without recognising his endorsement, the move could reopen the very divisions the consensus process was designed to resolve.
There is also a third possibility: the discussions may ultimately produce an arrangement that does not directly threaten Dr Hassan but instead seeks to settle disagreements over political representation and future cooperation.
That would require clarity about who supports whom, what role the elders’ endorsement would retain, and whether all parties accept the outcome. Until those questions are answered, it would be inaccurate to portray the gathering as either a rejection of Dr Hassan or proof that his candidacy is secure.
The next phase of the story will therefore be determined less by speculation than by observable political decisions. Does either aspirant publicly clarify his intentions? Will Ugas reaffirm his gubernatorial ambition or announce a different target? Will Mohamed Fai identify the seat he intends to pursue?
And, most importantly, will Dr Hassan and the Fai leadership acknowledge a new arrangement or insist that the existing endorsement remains the community’s political position?
These are the questions that will reveal whether Saturday’s gathering was a symbolic show of unity, the beginning of serious negotiations or an early step towards a wider coalition.
For now, Mohamed Fai’s statement has opened a political window without revealing what lies beyond it. Ugas’s next move remains uncertain, the Tarbaj parliamentary possibility is unconfirmed, and the future relationship between the two aspirants and Dr Hassan has yet to be defined.
But one conclusion is already clear: the struggle for Wajir’s governorship is no longer only about who wants the seat. It is increasingly about who can negotiate, who can compromise, and who can bring competing ambitions into one workable political arrangement.
If the Fai community succeeds in turning its internal conversations into a credible agreement, it could enter the 2027 contest with greater strategic coherence. If the negotiations collapse into competing camps, the community risks revisiting the divisions that weakened its position in 2022.
The real political story may not be who steps aside, but what each side receives in return and whether any eventual agreement can unite the Fai community behind a common electoral strategy.