The battle for the future of Galmudug has exploded into one of the most consequential political confrontations Somalia has witnessed since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned to power in 2022.
What began as whispers inside Villa Somalia has now evolved into a visible and highly coordinated political operation aimed at reshaping power inside Galmudug a federal member state considered strategically vital to Somalia’s security, electoral arithmetic, and broader federal balance.
At the center of this emerging storm stands one man: Liibaan Ahmed Hassan.
The ruling Justice and Solidarity Party has now overwhelmingly agreed internally that Liibaan Axmed Xasan will become the party’s official candidate for the upcoming Galmudug presidential election. According to political insiders, the formal announcement is expected in Dhusamareeb, confirming what many within Somali political circles already believe: Villa Somalia has decisively chosen succession over continuity in Galmudug.
If completed successfully, this would mark one of the most significant federal political realignments since the fierce confrontations between Villa Somalia and Jubaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe.
But unlike Jubaland, this conflict is unfolding inside what was once considered one of Hassan Sheikh’s most loyal regional political strongholds.
For nearly four years, Ahmed Abdi Kariye Qoorqoor was viewed as one of Hassan Sheikh’s closest and most dependable federal allies.
Their partnership played a critical role in stabilizing federal politics after Hassan Sheikh’s return to the presidency. Qoorqoor aligned himself closely with federal priorities, cooperated on security matters, and avoided direct confrontation with Villa Somalia at moments when other federal member states openly resisted Mogadishu.
That relationship now appears deeply fractured.
The last 48 hours have revealed a dramatic escalation in tensions between the two leaders. Somali political observers increasingly describe the situation not as a policy disagreement, but as a full-scale power struggle over who controls Galmudug ahead of Somalia’s next major political transition.
The symbolism is important.
In Somali politics, regional presidents are not merely local administrators. They are power brokers who influence parliamentary alignments, clan negotiations, security cooperation, and federal election outcomes.
Losing control of Galmudug or allowing it to drift politically independent would represent a serious strategic setback for Villa Somalia.
And that appears to be exactly what federal strategists fear could happen under a second Qoorqoor term.
At the heart of the political fallout lies one core issue: Qoorqoor reportedly wants another term.
Sources inside Somali political circles indicate that Qoorqoor believed his loyalty to Hassan Sheikh over the past four years would naturally guarantee federal backing for reelection.
Instead, Villa Somalia appears to have moved decisively in another direction.
Federal insiders increasingly believe several concerns pushed Hassan Sheikh toward supporting Liibaan Axmed Xasan.
One major concern reportedly emerging within Villa Somalia is that Qoorqoor has gradually built his own autonomous political machinery inside Galmudug.
Over time, he strengthened relationships with local clan elders, security actors, regional administrators, business networks, and political intermediaries.
For federal strategists, this may have created fears that Qoorqoor was becoming too politically self-sufficient and less controllable ahead of future federal political battles.
Somalia is also slowly moving toward another highly sensitive electoral transition period.
Control of federal member states often determines parliamentary alliances, presidential campaign structures, security deployment influence, and elite clan bargaining power.
Villa Somalia may believe a politically independent Qoorqoor could become unpredictable during future federal election negotiations.
There is also growing evidence that Hassan Sheikh’s administration wants stronger federal influence over regional security structures across Somalia.
This agenda has already generated tensions in Puntland, Jubaland, and now increasingly in Galmudug.
Federal officials argue Somalia cannot defeat Al-Shabaab without unified security coordination.
Critics, however, interpret the same policy differently as an attempt to centralize political power and weaken regional autonomy.
Why Liibaan Axmed Xasan Emerged as the Preferred Candidate for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud
What makes Liibaan’s rise politically fascinating is that, until recently, he was not widely viewed as the inevitable successor to Qoorqoor.
Yet within months, he has emerged as the clear favorite of Hassan Sheikh’s ruling political network.
The single most important factor appears to be political trust.
Sources close to the ruling JSP party indicate Hassan Sheikh increasingly views Liibaan as dependable, politically disciplined, and more aligned with Villa Somalia’s long-term agenda.
In Somali federal politics, trust often matters more than popularity.
Another major factor is the support Liibaan reportedly enjoys from influential Galmudug political figures aligned with Hassan Sheikh.
This matters because regional succession in Somalia is rarely decided by one individual alone. It requires clan coordination, elite negotiations, security guarantees, and financial mobilization.
Liibaan appears to have quietly secured support across several of these fronts.
Political observers also note that Liibaan reportedly enjoys strong backing from influential business circles within Galmudug, particularly among sections of the Hawiye business elite.
Business backing in Somali politics is critical because campaigns often depend heavily on logistical financing, political mobilization, and negotiation networks.
Perhaps most interestingly, many opposition figures inside Galmudug have not strongly resisted Liibaan’s candidacy.
That silence itself is politically meaningful.
It may indicate elite consensus building, exhaustion with confrontation politics, or recognition that Villa Somalia has already made its final decision.
The Security Dimension Could Become Dangerous
The most alarming aspect of the unfolding crisis is that the political struggle is increasingly touching security institutions.
Reports indicate growing tensions over police command structures, intelligence influence, military deployments, and institutional control inside Galmudug.
Qoorqoor reportedly still maintains influence over important regional security networks, while federal authorities are simultaneously attempting to expand their own leverage inside the state apparatus.
In Somalia’s fragile federal system, that combination can quickly become volatile.
Political disputes between Mogadishu and regional administrations have historically escalated into armed standoffs when security commands become divided, rival appointments emerge, or local forces split loyalties.
This is why many observers now compare the Galmudug situation to earlier confrontations between Villa Somalia and Jubaland.
The fear among diplomats and regional analysts is not merely political instability it is the possibility of institutional fragmentation inside a frontline state fighting Al-Shabaab.
Critics increasingly accuse Hassan Sheikh of pursuing a long-term strategy aimed at centralizing political authority, weakening autonomous regional leaders, and installing loyal allies across federal member states.
That narrative has already taken root in Puntland and Jubaland.
Now Galmudug appears to be joining that list.
Supporters of the president reject those accusations entirely.
They argue Somalia cannot function effectively with fragmented regional security systems and competing political centers.
From their perspective, stronger federal coordination, aligned regional leadership, and centralized security planning are necessary to stabilize the country and defeat Al-Shabaab.
The Galmudug confrontation therefore represents something much bigger than a regional election.
It is becoming a test case for Somalia’s entire federal future.
Three scenarios now appear possible.
Qoorqoor could ultimately negotiate a political settlement with Villa Somalia involving future federal influence, political protection, diplomatic appointments, or guarantees for his allies.
Another possibility is that Qoorqoor refuses to quietly step aside and instead mobilizes regional elites, clan support, and political allies against Villa Somalia’s succession plan.
The most dangerous scenario is institutional confrontation involving security structures.
If rival political camps begin competing for control over police, intelligence, or military units, the crisis could rapidly destabilize Galmudug.
That is the outcome regional observers fear most.
The most important political signal from the past 48 hours is not merely that Liibaan Axmed Xasan has emerged as JSP’s preferred candidate.
It is that Hassan Sheikh and Qoorqoor are no longer behaving like allies managing internal disagreements privately.
The conflict is now public.
Strategic.
Organized.
And directly tied to succession politics inside Galmudug.
If Liibaan officially becomes the sole JSP-backed candidate in the coming days, it will confirm that Villa Somalia has fully committed to engineering leadership transition inside Galmudug rather than preserving the current order.
In many ways, Somali political observers increasingly see this as “Laftagareen Round Two” but this time inside central Somalia.
And the outcome could reshape not only Galmudug, but the future balance of power across Somalia’s fragile federal system itself.